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Saturday, June 12, 2010

GREECE,SPAIN,HUNGERY AND NOW JAPAN ON "Q"

 Japan is at "risk of collapse" under its huge debt mountain, the country's new prime minister has said.
Naoto Kan, in his first major speech since taking over, said Japan needed a financial restructuring to avert a Greece-style crisis.
"Our country's outstanding public debt is huge... our public finances have become the worst of any developed country," he said.
After years of borrowing, Japan's debt is twice its gross domestic product.
Pessimists have long warned that rising debt and a falling population mean Japan is headed for a point of no return.
For 20 years the government has been borrowing to spend, hoping to revive the stagnant economy, amassing the biggest debt-to-GDP ratio in the industrialised world.
The Japanese themselves have been buying those bonds at low interest rates. But as Japan ages, the thinking goes, households will save less.
The Government will have to look abroad to borrow, and the higher interest rates demanded could tip the world's second biggest economy into the abyss.
Now the new Prime Minister Naoto Kan has stepped into the debate in his first policy speech to the Diet, warning Japan could face similar debt problems to Europe.
But not everyone is convinced Japan, with its huge trade surplus, is doomed.
And Mr Kan may simply be easing the way towards raising consumption tax and reneging on spending pledges made during last year's election.
"It is difficult to continue our fiscal policies by heavily relying on the issuance of government bonds," said Mr Kan, Japan's former finance minister.
"Like the confusion in the eurozone triggered by Greece, there is a risk of collapse if we leave the increase of the public debt untouched and then lose the trust of the bond markets," he said.
No Greece Despite the prime minister's hair-raising words, markets did not bat an eyelid, with the Japanese yen, the Nikkei stock market index and Japanese government bonds unmoved.
"Fiscal austerity measures are long overdue," said Chris Scicluna, deputy head of economics at Daiwa Capital Markets in London.
He forecasts that the government's budget deficit will be 8% of GDP this year, a number that Mr Kan has promised to reduce to zero by the end of the decade.
However, Mr Scicluna said the government does not face any immediate fiscal crisis, unlike some European countries, and probably will not start tackling its budget deficit for at least another year or two.
Unlike Greece or Spain, Japan is a net lender to the rest of the world, to the tune of 2.5% of its GDP last year.
Cheap borrowing The Japanese government is effectively the only borrower in Japan, and raises all of the money it needs from the savings of its own citizens.

JAPAN IN FIGURES


  • Government debt: 200% of GDP
  • Government deficit: 8% of GDP
  • External surplus: 2.5-3.5% of GDP
  • GDP growth: 3%
  • Inflation: -1.5%
  • 30-year bond yield: 2%
  • Some 95% of the government's debts are held by Japanese investors, and the government can currently borrow for 30 years at a mere 2% interest rate.
But Mr Scicluna says Japan does have serious medium-term problems related to its ageing population.
As more and more Japanese citizens retire in the next few years, they are likely to start selling their government bonds to pay for their retirements.
This means that Japan will need to start borrowing from the rest of the world, and the government may have a hard time convincing foreign lenders to let it borrow at such a low interest rate.
Tax reform Mr Kan did not detail the fiscal changes he may impose to revive Japan's economy after years to stagnation.
But in the past Mr Kan has advocated increasing Japan's sales tax, a move that would be unpopular.
He said: "It is unavoidable to launch a full reform of the tax system. If we maintain the current level of issuance of new bonds, outstanding debt will surpass 200% of GDP in a few years.
"It's been 20 years since the collapse of the bubble economy in the early 1990s. Because the Japanese economy had been in the doldrums, people have lost the trust they had and fear the uncertainty of the future," he said.
Who will spend? The Japanese austerity plans may not be welcome elsewhere in the world.
Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner called on surplus countries - like Japan, Germany and China - to do more to increase spending.
Yet Germany has announced plans to cut its budget deficit by 3% of GDP over the next four years, while China's trade surplus has grown even further, according to data for May.
With Japan also now looking to wield the fiscal axe, some may wonder who is actually going to spend money in the world economy.


Wall Street ended up for the week and major indices aren't down the requisite 20%. But the bear's roar can be heard.

                     "WATCH MONDAY MARKET SOME CORRECTION POSSIBLE" 

Friday, June 11, 2010

HAPPY FRIDAY - 11.06.2010

 TODAY HOT BUYING STOCKS
HDFC BANK
ICICI BANK
BANK OF BARODA
RIL
HINDALCO

8.47 AM : TODAY NIFTY WILL GAP UP OPEN 50 TO 60 POINTS
NIFTY 5100 CALL BUYERS ENJOY

TODAY TIPS

RIL BUY AT 1017 TARGET 1030 - 1035

HDFC BANK BUY AT 1917 TARGET 1930 - 1935

ICICI BANK BUY AT 832 TARGET 840 - 845

NIFTY TODAY LEVEL 5130 - 5150 -5185 - 5205

NIFTY SUPPORT 5050

NIFTY WILL ZOOM TO KISS TODAY 5180 MUST

8.58 AM :TRADERS ENJOY TODAY BANKING SECTOR WILL ZOOOOOOOOM

9.15 AM : NIFTY 5100 CALL TARGET 92 ACHIEVED

9.17 AM : HDFC BANK ROCKING

9.19 AM : NIFTY HURDLE 5130 LEVEL , IT WILL BROKEN NIFTY ZOOM

9.22 AM : TRADERS TRADE SAFELY

TRADE WITH STRICT STOPLOSS

NIFTY ZOOM WITH OUT VOLUME, SOME NEGATIVE INDICATION

SO TRADERS ALERT KEEP EYE ON NIFTY

10:30 AM: Nifty Volumes not encouraging

10:33 AM: Targets achieved in RIL, ICICI & HDFC. Enjoy

11.19 AM : Nifty will try to 5150(it is possible)

11:34 AM : 5100 Call Fired will break 100

12:08 PM : See our 10:30 AM Message. Nifty volumes not encouraging

12:40 PM : Buy SESA GOA 340 PUT at Rs. 12 to 12.50 Target 16-18

1:08 PM : Europe Markets dragging  down NIFTY

1:09 PM : Nifty 5100. Short SBI.

Alert: Europe in RED

Long holders careful

1:53 PM : Buy Nifty 5100 PUT @ 75 Target 92

3.20 pm : HOLD NIFTY PUT AND SESA GOA PUT

MONDAY IT WILL COME

3.25 PM : SESAGOA HIT DAY LOW

3.27 PM : HAPPY WEEK END

MEET YOU ALL MONDAY MORNING AT 8.45 AM

BYE     BYE

Thursday, June 10, 2010

HAPPY THURSDAY - 10.06.2010

 TODAY HOT BUYING STOCKS
ONGC
BHARTI AIRTEL
ITC
RIL
HDFC BANK
IVRCL

9.20 AM :NIFTY HURDLE 5030 - 5050 - 5080 - 5102

TODAY NIFTY WILL ZOOM UP TO 5102

9.20 AM : BHARTI AIRTEL TARGET 278 IVRCL TARGET 182

9:46 AM: NIFTY Moving upwards as per our prediction.

9:53 AM: Next hurdle for Nifty is 5050

12.53 pm : bharti airtel TARGET ACHIEVED

12.55 PM : EUROPE OPEN WITH WEAK

1.13 PM : NIFTY ABOVE 5044 WILL KISS TO 5080

1:16 PM : Nifty Futures again overtaking Nifty favoring BULLS

2:05 PM: Wow NF @ 5050

3:40 PM: Finally Nifty at 5080. Still our 5100 Call Target of Rs 92. is pending and closed at Rs. 84.5
That's all today. Bye. Meet you all tomorrow 8:45 AM

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

HAPPPY WEDNESDAY - 09.06.2010

 TODAY HOT BUYING SECTOR PHARMA
SUN PHARMA
LUPIN
GLENMARK
BHARTI AIRTEL
9.17 am : TODAY AFTERNOON OUR MARKET WILL SOME RECOVERY

DONT PANIC , BE HAPPY

TRADE WITH STRICT STOPLOSS

UP TO AFTERNOON FLAT TRADING POSSIBE

KEEP EYE ON NIFTY

DONT TRADE AGAINST MARKET

9.20 AM : NIFTY SUPPORT 4950 , IT WILL BROKEN SOME MORE PANIC SELLING

POSSIBLE

NIFTY RESISTANCE 5005 - 5030 - 5050 - 5080 - 5102

9:53 AM: Bharti Airtel Going strong. Zoomed from 262 to 268

10:05 AM: Our Pharma stocks flat. Up-move expected

10:20 AM: For BHARTI AIRTEL day traders book profit if it goes below 270. Delivery buyers can hold.

10:29 AM: Nifty June Futures discount reduced, A positive sign for the market.

11:23 AM: Nifty zoom above 5030.

11:42 AM: Will NF Overtake Nifty? Wait and watch.

12:01 PM: Nifty Above 5030. Heading towards 5080. See what we said today morning at 9:17 AM

12:50 PM: See what we said yesterday. No need to panic. Nifty will come back. Our thirsty traders averaged 5100 June CALL at Rs 48. Now enjoying

12:55 PM: Wait for our Nifty June 5100 Call target of Rs.85

2:10 PM: Panic stage. Day traders keep stop loss in Airtel at 269.

3:25 PM: Able to hold above 5000 is safe.

3:35 PM: Nifty ends almost flat. Bye.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

HAPPY TUESDAY - 08.06.2010

 8.47 AM : TODAY NIFTY OPEN FLAT

TIPS FOR THE DAY
ASHOK LEYLAND BUY AT 62 TARGET 64.50
ONGC BUY AT 1180 TARGET 1195
L&T BUY AT 1641 TARGET 1655
BHEL BUY AT 2271 TARGET 2285

8.59 am :yesterday petrol hike postponed

yesterday us market closing again red

9.08 AM :ONGC STRUGGLED DONT BUY WAIT

9.11 AM : ASHOK LEYLAND AND BHEL IS STRONG

9.17 AM : MARKET SENSITIVE

9.20 AM : BUY EDUCOMP 550 TARGET 555

9.25 AM : NIFTY HURDLE 5050 - 5080 - 5105 - 5130

SUPPORT  5030 - 5002 - 4970

10.38 AM : MARKET DOUBLE MINDED

SO, TRADE WITH STRICT STOPLOSS




11.32 AM : We live in a Nation where Pizza reaches home Faster than Ambulance & Police Where You can get Car Loan @8% but Education Loan @12%
76 police men are killed mercilessly but media is busy showing the news of marriage of failed sports person(sania n shoeb)
Where Rice is 70 Rs/kg but Sim cards are free
Where a millionaire can buy a cricket team instead to donate money in charity 
Where everybody wants to be famous but nobody wants to follow the path to be famous 
Where people sitting at tea stall reading an article about child labour  Incredible India.!! Are we Still Proud to be an Indian??

12.37 PM : MARKET BORING 

12.50 pm : europe open with green, but flat 

2:01 pm: 5030 Intermediate support broken 

2:18 pm: Negative News from Europe. Traders be care full. 

2:30 pm: EU finance ministers thrash out economy reforms in an effort to curb debt crisis

2:46 pm: Traders don't panic 

3:30 pm:  Bye. See you tomorrow morning

Monday, June 7, 2010

CRASHING MONDAY - 07.06.2010


9:04AM: Our 5000 and 5100 June PUT Rocking. Safe traders book profit.

9:08AM: 5000 and 5100 PUT almost doubled from previous close. Jackpot for Shorters. We asked to go short on Friday morning itself.

9:12AM: Traders wait and watch. No fresh long or fresh short. Wait till cool down.

9:48AM: Nifty stays above 5000. We have to wait another 30Mts for a decision.

10:10AM: Europe today further down expected. It can drag down NIFTY too. Wait till then. Risky traders can go short with a strict stop loss.

11:10AM: Nifty still above 5000 Mark. Safe above that. Wait for Europe opening at 1:00PM

11.27 AM : KEEP EYE ON NIFTY
TODAY SOME MORE NEWS HIT ON OUR MARKET
PETROL HIKE, G 20 RESULT

2.00 pm : market cat on the wall position

2.11pm : nifty try to down

2.30 pm is trend decide period

keep eye on 2.30pm

2.25pm :

2.40 pm : nifyt support 5005 - 4970 - 4950

2.52 pm : nifty trade with flat ( this is the trend)

3:17pm : Buy Nifty June 5100 Call  at 67 Target 85

3:31 pm: Tomorrow recovery expected. Bye
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